How Accurate is Joe Lunardi?

Joe Lunardi is often regarded as an "expert" or a "bracketologist."  Yeah, ok.  I've seen other bloggers analyze Joe Lunardi's accuracy in other ways - like looking at how accurate his seeds are.  This is one way to prove he knows no more than the rest of us, but not the only way.  Year after year he is praised for his 90-some percent accuracy rate in predicting the tournament field.  Let's look at the obvious: This percentage is based on picks he makes ON SELECTION SUNDAY.  At this point, 31 of the 68 teams have already been locked in.  So he only has to pick 37 teams.

So you saw teams like Louisville and Vanderbilt win their conference tournaments instead of the expected teams, Syracuse and Kentucky.  Now, I won't knock Lunardi for picking Kentucky and Syracuse as automatic bids, but I can't exactly credit him for "guessing" the top 2 teams in the country would get at-large bids.  Same with UNC and Duke.  FSU won the ACC tournament, but is there anyone out there who couldn't have guessed UNC and Duke would get at-large bids?? You get my point.  It's really not that hard to predict a lot of the teams ON Selection Sunday.

But ESPN doesn't start asking Lunardi for his opinion on Selection Sunday, do they? The answer is no.  The first bracket I saw from Joe Lunardi came out November 9, 2011.  If Joe Lunardi could predict the tournament field with a 90-some percent accuracy in November, I would gladly call him an "expert bracketologist."  So, how accurate is Joe Lunardi?  Let's see...

Joe Lunardi's Bracket from November 9, 2011 for the 2012 NCAA Tournament

Well, based on my (admittedly quick) calculation, he correctly predicted 42 of the 68 teams.  That's 61.76% accuracy of the teams.  I'm not going to get into seeding accuracy.  But I'm not impressed.  I have been saying for years that Joe Lunardi does not know more about college basketball than I do, and I still believe that.  So why does he even have a job at the beginning of the season if everyone ignores everything he says before Selection Sunday? And how can I get that job when he retires?

I won't even bother analyzing Jerry Palm's, because it's just embarrassing that a few short weeks ago he still had 9 teams from the Big Ten projected to be in the tournament.  We get it Palm: You went to Purdue and you think the Big Ten is fantastic because of it.  But look at the facts: That conference hasn't won a championship in more than a decade.  The media does love the Big Ten though, doesn't it? Every year I hear non-stop about either Michigan State or Ohio State.  In 2005 they took a break and focused on Illinois.  This year they went back and forth between the Spartans and the buckeyes.

I won't share with you my picks - mostly because that would make this blog 300 pages long and partly because I haven't finished them, but when you're filling out your bracket this year, remember one thing: Don't buy into the media hype!

Think about my tweet from February 16th before you pick Michigan State or Ohio State to win it all.  I mean it's March, and anything can happen....but the only thing I recommend Big Ten basketball for is helping you to fall asleep (See: Wisconsin vs Penn State, 2011 Big Ten Tournament).  With that said, Go Gators, and let the madness begin!!